Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely delivered by allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are evidently unprepared to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The detailed framework from Washington sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new proposal from Washington follows the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, certainly, continue.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is impossible to force Russia to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
