Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover identity markers, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has valuable insights to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
